| چکیده انگلیسی مقاله |
Geography and Development 10nd Year - No. 29 - Winter 2013 Received : 27/10/2011 Accepted : 17/7/2012 PP : 40 - 43 Synoptic Analysis of July 2010 Russian Fires and Pakistan Floods Dr. Ghasem Azizi Associate Profesor of Climatology University of Tehran Dr.Aliakbar Shamsipour Assistant Professor of Climatology University of Tehran Morteza Miri Ph.D Student of Climatology University of Tehran Introduction Abnormality due to the heat flow of summer2010 impacted on most of Northern Hemisphere including: Russia, Kazakhstan, Iran, Mongolia, China and some parts of European continent. Heat flow and consequently increasing the temperature in Russia began on late June ,with the beginning of summer season, the temperature increase was more severe, and has caused devastating effects such as forest fires of Russia from 31 July around Moscow town. Further, at the same month from 24 of July, upon heavy rains and increasing the water level at Sind basin, the provinces of Baluchistan, Sind, Punjab and Kheibar in Pakistan were flooded. So that, about one fifth of the whole of Pakistan was flooded. Based on the reports published by Pakistan state, the life of about 20,000,000 people was affected by the flood. According to the reports, the total number of people injured in this flood is more than the three events of 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami disaster, 2005 Kashmir earthquake and 2010 Haiti earthquake. Damage to the buildings was estimated about US$4 billion, and wheat crop damages were estimated to be about US$500 million. World Meteorological Organization considers the global warming as the main reason for climatic changes and its consequences, such as droughts, floods, fires and heat flows. Research Methodology Unprecedented heat of summer months of 2010 in Russia has caused large and extensive fires in the forests of Moscow West suburbs, at the same time, torrential precipitation occurred in Pakistan. Its causes were analyzed by using the data of Russia meteorological stations (Moscow),(Rostov on Don), (Volgograd) and (Kazan),and Pakistan(Risalpur), (Peshawar), (Murree),and synoptic maps of the ground surface levels of,850,500,250hpa. In this study, the elements of temperature, wind direction and speed, air pressure and geo-potential height at different levels in Russia and Pakistan were studied. Synoptic Analysis of July 2010 Russian Fires and Pakistan Floods Discussion and Results Pakistan and Russia are located in different latitudes and climatic conditions, So that their effective and controller climatic systems are quite different. Pakistan is located in lower latitudes and adjacent to torrid area. Its eastern parts are located on Indian plateau and its west and northern part is located on Iran plateau and Eurasia. It has relatively mild winters and warm summers. Its Northern areas have temperate climates, and southern parts influenced by Southern tropical and Southeast Asia monsoon systems. Central areas have hot summers which their temperature reaches to over 45 C° and Cold winters which the temperature reaches to freezing point. Russia, with more than 17 million square kilometers of area, is the largest country in the world. It is located at high geographical latitudes and most of the country is cold with low precipitation. Therefore most of the areas of the country (especially the grand country Siberia) are empty and Agriculture is impossible. Effective atmospheric systems includes low and high pressures temperate latitudes and adjacent to polar area. Its temperature conditions is known with low and cold temperatures. Although the climatic conditions of each region is under the influenced of several factors and is different from its surrounding areas, but some climate phenomena can operate on a larger scale and in different regions have a common origin. In this study, with regard to the simultaneous occurrence of two climatic phenomenon of severe floods in Pakistan and fires in forests in the west of Russia, it is tried to identify and analyze the synoptic relationship between the two events. Based on time analysis, temperature changes at four considered stations as the West representative stations of Russia's were studied, The annual mean of maximum temperature for June, July, August and September were extracted and calculated from daily data and the required graphs were plotted. Since the fires were started in Russia on late July, the data related to one month prior to the occurrences of this phenomenon were studied. The review of average annual and temperature anomaly of temperature data, the increase of temperature in 2010 is obvious. Based on the calculations, in the study period, temperature increase can be observed in most regions of Russia and Pakistan. Also the review of rainfall data of Pakistan stations in late July showed an increasing trend, So that during three days(27 to 30 July), 400 mm of precipitation is recorded in Sialkot station. While this volume of rainfall occurs on average during 4 months each year .According to analytical maps of different elements of atmospheric analysis at the ground level and upper levels, a low-pressure Centre with 998 hpa central pressure in Pakistan and a high pressure centre with central pressure 1017hpa on the ground surface in Russian has affected on the atmospheric conditions of these areas. Maps of high levels of atmosphere show the presence of blocking system during July. . According to the calculations, the intensity of blocking system was weak (0.76) during the first week of July, but in the next three weeks of July has had a moderate intensity from minimum 2.1 up to maximum 2.85. Conclusion Based on the obtained results, it was cleared that location of Blocking system in the upper levels of atmosphere, on one hand caused by the currents emitted from northern latitudes to warm down areas of Russia and the rotation system causing long lasting accumulation of warm and dry air system in the West with sunny and smooth sky which leads to drastic increase of temperature and widespread fires of late July in Russia. Also moving subtropical high pressure system to high latitudes, causing thermal low pressures on Arabian Sea and Persian Gulf. These systems by changing direction and moving toward the North East of its original position, it is extended up to Pakistan. So in contacting with cold air masses which extended under the affection of Blocking system from high latitudes, is strengthened and created the torrential precipitation of Pakistan. Therefore, both of the discussed phenomenon are in relation with each other due to the existing models of atmospheric systems and in particular the occurred blocking phenomenon at high latitudes and show the climatic regional anomalies . Keywords: Flood, Fire, Tmperature and precipitation anomalies, Blocking, Russia and Pakistan. References 1. Azizi Gh (1999). Blocking, Geography Researches Journal, No.39. 2. Azizi Gh, Akbari T, Davudi M, Akbari M, (2009), A Synoptic Analysis of January 2008 Sever Cold in Iran, Geography Researches Journal, No. 70. 3. Babaeian I, Karimian M (2010). akistan floods, effects of climate change in the Polar Regions, climatic research centre. 4. Ching-Sen C and Partners (2009). Investigation of a heavy rainfall event over southwestern Taiwan associated with a sub synoptic cyclone during the 2003 Mei-Yu season, Atmospheric Research Volume 95, Issues 2-3. 5. Ferrarisa L, Realec O, and Turato B. (2001). Synoptic and hydrological analysis of a flood event, Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Part B: Hydrology, Oceans and Atmosphere,Vol 26, Issue 9. 6. Gamble D.W, Meentemeyer, V.G (1997). A synoptic climatology of extreme unseasonable floods in the southeastern United States, 1950-1990, Physical Geography, Volume 18, Issue 6P. 7. Habibi F (2007). The Role of Blocking on Surface Cyclogenesis over East of Mediterranean Sea and its Influence on the March 2003’s Flood over West of Iran, Geography Researches Journal, No. 62. 8. Houze R. A (2010). Anomalous Atmospheric Events Leading to the Summer 2010 Floods in Pakistan, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 9. Jeong J, Park I, Rokjin J, Daeok Y (2008). Effects of Siberian forest fires on air quality in East Asia during May 2003 and its climate implication, Atmospheric Environment, Volume 42, Issue 39 10. Kassomenos P (2010). Synoptic circulation control on wild fire occurrence, Physics and Chemistry of the Earth 35. 11. Flannigan M.D, Stocks B.J, Wotton B.M (2000). Climate change and forest fires, Science of The Total Environment, Volume 262, Issue 3. 12. Synoptic Analysis of July 2010 Russian Fires and Pakistan Floods Millions of Pakistan children at risk of flood diseases, news 16 august2010, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_pakkistan_floods. 13. Mokhov I.I, Chernokulsky A.V (2009). Regional model assessments of forest fire risks in the Asian part of Russia under climate change, Geography and Natural Resources, Volume 31, Issue 2. 14. Najar saligheh M (2006). Precipitation Mechanisms In the South East of Iran, Geography Researches Journal, No. 55. 15. Najjar saligheh M (2001). Synoptic patterns of summer precipitation in Southeast India, Geographical Research, No. 62. 16. Olga Zolina, and Partners )2004). Analysis of extreme precipitation over Europe from different reanalyses: a comparative assessment, Global and Planetary Change 44. 17. Pereira, Mário G and ET (2005). Synoptic patterns associated with large summer forest fires in Portugal, Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Volume 129, Issues 1-2. 18. Qader M, Monirul M (2003). Climate change and extreme weather events: can developing countries adapt?, Climate Policy, Volume 3, Issue 3. 19. Shaian S, Darand M (2008). Climate risk modeling and its effects on human health, Journal of Geography Education, No. 85. 20. Tsoi O.M (2008). The natural factors that are responsible for forest fires in the southern Far East, Geography and Natural Resources, Volume 30, Issue 2. |