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پژوهش های جغرافیای طبیعی، جلد ۵۱، شماره ۲، صفحات ۳۳۵-۳۵۲

عنوان فارسی واکاوی تغییرات مقدار، فراوانی، و شدت بارش‌ سالانۀ ناحیۀ خزری طی دورۀ آماری ۱۹۶۶-۲۰۱۶
چکیده فارسی مقاله بارش یکی از عناصر و فرایندهای اصلی اقلیم هر منطقه است که در برنامه‏ریزی‏های شهری و روستایی، مکان‏یابی صنعتی، معماری، کشاورزی، صنایع، و ... نقش تعیین‏کننده دارد. ازاین‏رو، در تحقیق حاضر تلاش شده است تا مقدار، فراوانی، و شدت بارش‏های سالانه ناحیه خزری ارزیابی شود. بدین‏منظور، از داده‏های روزانه 385 ایستگاه ‏همدید، اقلیم‏شناسی، و باران‏سنجی سازمان هواشناسی کشور و ایستگاه‏های باران‏سنجی وزارت نیرو طی بازه زمانی 1966-2016 استفاده ‏شده ‏است. با برازش مدل رگرسیون خطی به روش پارامتری، روند مقدار، فراوانی، و شدت بارش سالانه بررسی شد. نتایج حاصل از این پژوهش که در دیگر مطالعات مشهود نبوده ‏است بیانگر این است که میانگین بارش سالانه و فراوانی آن به‏ترتیب در 4/61درصد و 1/47درصد از پهنه دارای روند افزایشی است. شدت بارش سالانه در همه پهنه دارای رفتار ایستاست. روند ضریب تغییرات میانگین بارش سالانه نشان داد که گستره تحت حاکمیت روند ایستا بیشتر است؛ به‏‏طوری‏که در همه خط ساحلی و بخش‏هایی از ارتفاعات البرز توزیع بارش در گذر زمان در طی فصل‏های مختلف سال تغییری نکرده‏ است. بخش‏های شرقی ناحیه، ارتفاعات البرز (جنوب دریای خزر)، بخش‏هایی از ارتفاعات البرز غربی، و بخش بسیار کوچکی از غرب ناحیه روند کاهشی در ضریب تغییرات میانگین بارش سالانه دیده می‏شود.
کلیدواژه‌های فارسی مقاله تغییرات آب و هوایی، روند تغییرات بارش، مشخصات بارش، ناحیه خزری،

عنوان انگلیسی Analysis of the amount, frequency and intensity of annual precipitation in Caspian region over during 1966-2016
چکیده انگلیسی مقاله Precipitation is one of the most important climatic elements in every given region that plays a decisive role in urban and rural planning, industrial location, architecture, agriculture, industry, and so on. Accordingly, the present study attempts to evaluate the amount, frequency and intensity of annual precipitation in the Caspian coastal region in which the economical planning is fundamentally based on precipitation. To this end, the daily data of 385 stations, under Meteorological Organization and the Ministry of Energy's supervision have been used for the period of 2016-1966 (51 years). Then, the amount, frequency and intensity of annual precipitation were studied and finally, the trend was verified by fitting the linear regression model by using parametric method. The results showed that the annual precipitation in 61.4% and the frequency of precipitation in 47.1% of the under investigation area has an increasing trend. The annual precipitation is also stationary in all under study area. The trend of the coefficient of variation in the month- to- month precipitation indicated that the stationary trend is overcome in the majority of the area. Precipitation is one of the most important climatic elements in every given region that plays a decisive role in urban and rural planning, industrial location, architecture, agriculture, industry, and so on. Accordingly, the present study attempts to evaluate the amount, frequency and intensity of annual precipitation in the Caspian coastal region in which the economical planning is fundamentally based on precipitation. To this end, the daily data of 385 stations, under Meteorological Organization and the Ministry of Energy's supervision have been used for the period of 2016-1966 (51 years). Then, the amount, frequency and intensity of annual precipitation were studied and finally, the trend was verified by fitting the linear regression model by using parametric method. The results showed that the annual precipitation in 61.4% and the frequency of precipitation in 47.1% of the under investigation area has an increasing trend. The annual precipitation is also stationary in all under study area. The trend of the coefficient of variation in the month- to- month precipitation indicated that the stationary trend is overcome in the majority of the area. Consequently, precipitation throughout the coastline and parts of Alborz mountain chain has not changed during the year. Some parts of the area including the eastern parts, the Alborz mountain (south of the Caspian Sea), parts of the western Alborz, and a very small part of the west have experienced declining trend in the coefficient of variation in the annual rainfall. Precipitation is one of the most important climatic elements in every given region that plays a decisive role in urban and rural planning, industrial location, architecture, agriculture, industry, and so on. Accordingly, the present study attempts to evaluate the amount, frequency and intensity of annual precipitation in the Caspian coastal region in which the economical planning is fundamentally based on precipitation. To this end, the daily data of 385 stations, under Meteorological Organization and the Ministry of Energy's supervision have been used for the period of 2016-1966 (51 years). Then, the amount, frequency and intensity of annual precipitation were studied and finally, the trend was verified by fitting the linear regression model by using parametric method. The results showed that the annual precipitation in 61.4% and the frequency of precipitation in 47.1% of the under investigation area has an increasing trend. The annual precipitation is also stationary in all under study area. The trend of the coefficient of variation in the month- to- month precipitation indicated that the stationary trend is overcome in the majority of the area. Consequently, precipitation throughout the coastline and parts of Alborz mountain chain has not changed during the year. Some parts of the area including the eastern parts, the Alborz mountain (south of the Caspian Sea), parts of the western Alborz, and a very small part of the west have experienced declining trend in the coefficient of variation in the annual rainfall. Precipitation is one of the most important climatic elements in every given region that plays a decisive role in urban and rural planning, industrial location, architecture, agriculture, industry, and so on. Accordingly, the present study attempts to evaluate the amount, frequency and intensity of annual precipitation in the Caspian coastal region in which the economical planning is fundamentally based on precipitation. To this end, the daily data of 385 stations, under Meteorological Organization and the Ministry of Energy's supervision have been used for the period of 2016-1966 (51 years). Then, the amount, frequency and intensity of annual precipitation were studied and finally, the trend was verified by fitting the linear regression model by using parametric method. The results showed that the annual precipitation in 61.4% and the frequency of precipitation in 47.1% of the under investigation area has an increasing trend. The annual precipitation is also stationary in all under study area. The trend of the coefficient of variation in the month- to- month precipitation indicated that the stationary trend is overcome in the majority of the area. Consequently, precipitation throughout the coastline and parts of Alborz mountain chain has not changed during the year. Some parts of the area including the eastern parts, the Alborz mountain (south of the Caspian Sea), parts of the western Alborz, and a very small part of the west have experienced declining trend in the coefficient of variation in the annual rainfall.
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نویسندگان مقاله حسین عساکره |
استاد اقلیم‏ شناسی، دانشگاه زنجان، زنجان، ایران

نسرین ورناصری قندعلی |
دانشجوی دکترای تغییرات آب و هوایی، دانشگاه زنجان، زنجان، ایران


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