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Iranian Journal of Public Health، جلد ۵۰، شماره ۷، صفحات ۱۴۶۳-۱۴۷۳
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عنوان انگلیسی Projection of Health Sector Workforce Requirement: Vision 2025
چکیده انگلیسی مقاله Background: This study was conducted with a long-term vision (2014-2025) targeted workforce requirement projection by occupational groups in Iran’s health sector. Methods: The “modified & combined model” used including Hall Model and Australian health workforce estimation model. It was a need-based approach with three components of estimation; requirements, supply with current growth and net required workforce. Requirement estimated by three assumptions: active workforce calculation; the growth of health service delivery resources and facilities; and daily individual working hours, created eight different scenarios. Economic feasibility of each scenario determined. To forecast the supply, used accurate numbers of the existing pool of practicing workforce in addition to inflows, minus losses from the profession. To calculate total recruits required, base year stock deducted from projected requirement and by adding Net flow, recruits required calculated. Results: The health sector will need 781,887 workforces to realize service's needs. Workforce supply with the existing trend in the target year was 799,347. Therefore, workforce balance would be 17,460 surpluses. Moreover, to estimate required workforce and substitution number for the exited ones during the study periods till the target year, 547,136 individuals should be recruited mostly nurses and physicians. Conclusion: Limiting the workforce required to economic feasibility challenge workforce accessibility in the future as it is sensed in present tense as well. Therefore, in addition augmenting GDP and health funds, it is necessary alternative policies such as increasing share of health sector from GDP, prioritization of workforce needs or moving towards other proper policies.
کلیدواژه‌های انگلیسی مقاله
نویسندگان مقاله | Gholamhossein Salehi Zalani
Telfer School of Management, University of Ottawa, Ontario, Canada


| Azad Shokri
Social Determinants of Health Research Center, Research Institute for Health Development, Kurdistan University of Medical Sci-ences, Sanandaj, Iran


| Elmira Mirbahaeddin
Telfer School of Management, University of Ottawa, Ontario, Canada


| Tahereh Kashkalani
Center for Health Human Resources Research & Studies, Ministry of Health and Medical Education, Tehran, Iran


| Roghayeh Khalilnezhad
1. Center for Health Human Resources Research & Studies, Ministry of Health and Medical Education, Tehran, Iran 2. Health Management and Economics Research Center, Health Management Research Institute, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran


| Mahboubeh Bayat
Center for Health Human Resources Research & Studies, Ministry of Health and Medical Education, Tehran, Iran
نشانی اینترنتی https://ijph.tums.ac.ir/index.php/ijph/article/view/18384
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