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Iranian Journal of Public Health، جلد ۵۰، شماره ۵، صفحات ۱۰۴۸-۱۰۵۵
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عنوان انگلیسی Estimating the Lifetime and Age-Conditional Risk of an HIV Diagnosis in Iran, 2011-2015
چکیده انگلیسی مقاله Background: According to the importance of infectious diseases, especially HIV, the purpose of this study was to estimate lifetime and age-conditional risks of HIV diagnosis in Iran. Methods: We used vital statistics, HIV surveillance and census data for 2011-2015 to calculate Age-specific HIV diagnosis and non-HIV death rates. These rates then converted to the probability of an HIV diagnosis considering the competing risk. Finally, the probabilities were applied to a hypothetical cohort of 10 million live births. The lifetime and age-conditional risk of HIV diagnosis in the total and general population of Iran were calculated by Dev Can software (version 6.7.4). Results: Lifetime risk was 0.084% (95% CI: 0.081-0.088) or one in 1183 for females and 0.21% (95% CI: 0.201- 0.211) or one in 483 for males in the total population. In the general population lifetime risk for men was 0.069% (95% CI: 0.066-0.072) or 1 in 1454 men and 0.066% (95%CI: 0.063-0.069) or one in 1523 for women. In the total and general population, the 10-yr age-conditional risk of HIV diagnosis showed that the highest risk of an HIV diagnosis is related to 30-yr -olds. Conclusion: The estimated risks differed based on gender, age, and type of population. Paying close attention to these differences is critical for infection control planning and policies.
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نویسندگان مقاله | Maryam Nasirian
Department of Biostatistic and Epidemiology, School of Health, Isfahan University of Medical Sciences, Isfahan, Iran


| Marzieh Mahboobi
1. Department of Biostatistic and Epidemiology, School of Health, Isfahan University of Medical Sciences, Isfahan, Iran 2. Center for Communicable Diseases Control, Ministry of Health and Medical Educationa, Tehran, Iran


| Mohammad Reza Maracy
Department of Biostatistic and Epidemiology, School of Health, Isfahan University of Medical Sciences, Isfahan, Iran
نشانی اینترنتی https://ijph.tums.ac.ir/index.php/ijph/article/view/16319
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