این سایت در حال حاضر پشتیبانی نمی شود و امکان دارد داده های نشریات بروز نباشند
Journal of Biostatistics and Epidemiology، جلد ۶، شماره ۲، صفحات ۱۲۰-۱۲۵
عنوان فارسی
چکیده فارسی مقاله
کلیدواژه‌های فارسی مقاله
عنوان انگلیسی Phases 1 and 2 of Covid-19 Epidemic in the Three Geographical Areas of Italy: An Estimation of Italian Government Measures Based on a Bayesian Changepoint Detection Method
چکیده انگلیسی مقاله Background: Based on data from the Ministry of Health, which highlighted the earlier onset of Covid-19 epidemic in Italy, compared with the Europe, we would like to present a statistical elaboration on the impact of measures taken by the Government, during the phase 1 and the start of phase 2. Methods: After the implementation of a Bayesian changepoint detection method, we looked for a best fit model, based on the first part of time series data, in order to observe the progress of the data in the presence and absence of the restriction measures introduced. Results: Both the implementation of changepoint detection method and the analysis of the curves showed that the decree that marked the start of lockdown has had the effect of slowing down the epidemic by allowing the start of a plateau between 21 and 25 March. Moreover, the decree that decided the beginning of phase 2 on 4 May did not have a negative impact. Conclusion: This statistical analysis supports the hypothesis that stringent measures decreased hospitalization, thanks to a slowing down in the evolution of the epidemic compared with what was expected.  
کلیدواژه‌های انگلیسی مقاله
نویسندگان مقاله | Maria Manca
Department of Clinical and Experimental Medicine, University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy AND Department of Mathematics, University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy.


| Francesco Russo
Medical Hydrology, University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy.


| Vladimir Georgiev
Department of Mathematics, University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy.


| Stefano Taddei
Medical Hydrology, University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy.
نشانی اینترنتی https://jbe.tums.ac.ir/index.php/jbe/article/view/362
فایل مقاله فایلی برای مقاله ذخیره نشده است
کد مقاله (doi)
زبان مقاله منتشر شده
موضوعات مقاله منتشر شده
نوع مقاله منتشر شده
برگشت به: صفحه اول پایگاه   |   نسخه مرتبط   |   نشریه مرتبط   |   فهرست نشریات