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Iranian Economic Review، جلد ۲۶، شماره ۲، صفحات ۲۶۹-۲۸۸
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عنوان انگلیسی 2050 Projections of the Persian Gulf Economies
چکیده انگلیسی مقاله Projections of Persian Gulf Economies are obtained by forecasting their GDPs (constant 2010 US$)with spectral analysis until 2050. Persian Gulf Economies being oil-driven, the special relationshipbetween oil price and Persian Gulf Economies is unfolded with Multiscale Principal ComponentAnalysis and integrated into the forecasts. The GDPs are decomposed into clearer signals calledapproximations and details in the one-dimensional discrete wavelet analysis framework. Thesimplified signals are recomposed after the Burg extension. Spectral analysis forecasts are all bullishfor the eight economies of the Persian Gulf. Two thousand fifty spectral analysis projections rank Iraqfirst with an annual growth rate of +2.37% and Iran second with +2.19%. The two laggers among the2050 spectral analysis projections are Saudi Arabia (+1.37%) and Kuwait (-0.04%). Two thousandtwenty-four spectral analysis projections rank Iran first with an annual growth rate compounded of+4.12% and Iraq second with +3.79%. In comparison, IMF projections rank Iraq first (+3.17%) andUnited Arab Emirates (+2.92%). The two laggers among the 2024 spectral analysis projections areQatar (0.22%) and Kuwait (-3.74%), while the two laggers among the 2024 IMF projections are SaudiArabia (+2.15%) and Iran (-0.30%). In 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic brutally hurt the Persian GulfEconomies following a collapse in the global demand for oil and an oversupplied industry. Theindividual effect on these economies will depend on the response brought by their respectivegovernments.
کلیدواژه‌های انگلیسی مقاله Keywords GDP,Spectral analysis,Forecasts,Multiscale Principal Component Analysis,Persian Gulf Economies. JEL Classification C01,C5,C53,E3,E17,E37
نویسندگان مقاله Pierre Rostan |
College of Business, American University of Iraq, Baghdad, Iraq

Alexandra Rostan |
College of Business, American University of Iraq, Baghdad, Iraq

نشانی اینترنتی https://ier.ut.ac.ir/article_88164_dd6ef1df6aa3fff7f5820d5da3eb92e8.pdf
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