این سایت در حال حاضر پشتیبانی نمی شود و امکان دارد داده های نشریات بروز نباشند
پژوهش های رشد و توسعه پایدار، جلد ۲۳، شماره ۳، صفحات ۱۰۷-۱۳۱
عنوان فارسی بررسی اثر شاخص پیچیدگی اقتصادی بر سطح تولید ناخالص داخلی ایران
چکیده فارسی مقاله اقتصادی که بر خام فروشی و تولید ساده استوار است، هر لحظه با خطر تهدید روبرو است. لذا یکی از راهبردهای محوری در تحقق رشد و توسعه اقتصادی اتکای اقتصاد به تولید و صادرات محصولات پیچیده و مبتنی بر دانش است. بر همین اساس هدف اصلی این مقاله بررسی تأثیر شاخص پیچیدگی اقتصادی بر تولید ناخالص داخلی ایران می‌باشد. برای این منظور از داده‌های فصلی مربوط به دوره زمانی 1398ـ1374 کشور ایران و روش خود رگرسیون برداری بیزین (BVAR) برای بررسی ارتباط میان شاخص پیچیدگی اقتصادی و سطح تولید ناخالص داخلی استفاده شده است. نتایج مدل حاکی از آن است که شوک شاخص پیچیدگی اقتصادی بر سطح تولید ناخالص داخلی تأثیر منفی دارد زیرا پیچیدگی اقتصادی  نیازمند افزایش تعداد وظایفی است که باید به صورت تخصصی در فرآیند تولید انجام شود، لذا افزایش شاخص پیچیدگی در اقتصاد ایران بدون ارتقا زیرساختهای لازم می‌تواند خطر شکست فرآیند تولید را افزایش دهد. همچنین نتایج نشان می‌دهد شوک شاخص فساد و شوک تورم اثر منفی بر سطح تولید ناخالص داخلی دارد. شوک شاخص آزادی مالی، درجه باز بودن تجاری و سرمایه‌گذاری مستقیم خارجی تأثیر مثبت بر سطح تولید ناخالص داخلی دارد. در حالی که تأثیر شوک شاخص آزادی سرمایه‌گذاری بر تولید ناخالص داخلی بسیار ناچیز است.  
کلیدواژه‌های فارسی مقاله شاخص پیچیدگی اقتصادی، تولید ناخالص داخلی، تئوری O-ring، روش خودرگرسیون برداری بیزین (BVAR).
عنوان انگلیسی The Effect of Economic Complexity Index on the Level of the Gross Domestic Product of Iran
چکیده انگلیسی مقاله Introduction: An economy that is based on simple production is under threat every moment. Therefore, one of the central strategies in the realization of economic growth and development is to rely on the production and export of complex and knowledge-based products. In complex societies, people with different knowledge must be able to communicate and combine their knowledge to produce a product. Economic complexity in relation to the composition of a country's production products expresses a set of abilities to combine knowledge and skills. Therefore, societies that do not have parts of this set of abilities fail to produce complex products. Accordingly, the main goal of this article is to investigate the effect of economic complexity index on Iran's GDP. Methodology: In this research, seasonal data related to the period of 1374-1398 have been used in Iran, and Bayesian vector auto regression (BVAR) model with Minnesota prior distribution has been used to investigate the effect of economic complexity on the level of GDP. The Bayesian vector auto regression model provides more reliable predictions about the relationship between economic complexity and the level of GDP due to the reduction of model parameters and the consideration of prior functions. Results and Discussion: The results of the instantaneous reaction function of the level of gross domestic product (GDP) to the shock of the economic complexity index (ECI) show that this shock has a negative reaction on the level of GDP. Therefore, the impact of the economic complexity index shock on the level of GDP in the long term is negative. Also, the results show that the financial freedom index (FIS) shock increases the level of GDP in the long term. The response of GDP to the shock of the Investment Freedom Index (INV) is also very weak and almost neutral during 10 periods. The reaction of the GDP level to the shock of the business freedom index (BUS) is negative. The effect of the corruption index shock (COR) on the GDP level is negative, and the reaction of the GDP level to the bank credits to the private sector (CRDT) shock shows the negative effect of this shock on the GDP level. The reaction of the GDP level to the inflation shock (INF) shows that this shock has a negative effect on the GDP level during the period under review. The effect of the shock of trade openness (OPN) on the level of GDP during 10 periods is positive and has a low impact. This means that the trade openness shock increases the level of GDP in the long run.  Also, the reaction of the GDP level to the domestic direct investment (FDI) shock shows that the shock of this variable has a positive effect on the GDP level. The results of the variance analysis of the model variables also show that the shock variables of the Economic Freedom Index (ECON), Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and Inflation (INF), respectively, have the greatest impact on the GDP level. The variable shock of investment freedom index (INV) also has the least effect on the dependent variable. Conclusion: The results of the research show that the economic complexity index shock has a negative effect on the GDP level. According to Kremer's O-ring theory, greater complexity with increased specialized tasks and responsibilities leads to reduced production. In other words, when the production of goods is followed in a specialized manner, there is a possibility that in some stages of production, human capital and labor will not have the necessary ability to produce goods with high complexity due to lack of knowledge and skills. As a result, it causes a decrease in the production level. Therefore, the diversity of knowledge and skills in the production of products must be accompanied by the production of complex products. Iran's low rank in the economic complexity index shows the simplicity of the economy and the existence of structural weaknesses as well as vulnerability in the production and export structure. Therefore, in order to achieve economic complexity in the export portfolio and increase the level of production of products, the process of converting theoretical and scientific knowledge into complex and knowledge-based products should be followed with appropriate foundation in order to achieve the economic complexity index.  
کلیدواژه‌های انگلیسی مقاله Economic Complexity, Gross Domestic Product, BVAR, O-ring
نویسندگان مقاله منیره رفعت | Monireh Rafat
Associate Professor of the Department of Economics, Faculty of Administrative Sciences and Economics, University of Isfahan
دانشیار گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده علوم اداری و اقتصاد، دانشگاه اصفهان

سعیده احمدی | saeedeh ahmadi
Ph.D student of economics, Faculty of Social Sciences and Economics, Bu- Ali Sina University
نشانی اینترنتی http://ecor.modares.ac.ir/browse.php?a_code=A-10-39921-1&slc_lang=fa&sid=18
فایل مقاله فایلی برای مقاله ذخیره نشده است
کد مقاله (doi)
زبان مقاله منتشر شده fa
موضوعات مقاله منتشر شده
نوع مقاله منتشر شده
برگشت به: صفحه اول پایگاه   |   نسخه مرتبط   |   نشریه مرتبط   |   فهرست نشریات