| چکیده انگلیسی مقاله |
Aim and Introduction Today, planners and decision makers of countries need timely and accurate evaluation of their decisions and policies. The issue of time and precision is so important that it provides the possibility of implementing possible changes and modifications of patterns and plans and prevents the wastage of resources and opportunities Fortunately , various indicators have provided such a possibility to evaluate these policies and decisions . Misery index is one of the most important measures of social welfare. This index is obtained from the linear combination of inflation and unemployment. This index was introduced by Aokan (1999) and expanded by Barro (1996). An increase in the misery index is associated with many social and economic costs , such as an increase in crime , poverty , divorce , a decrease in social security , damage to mental health , the collapse of families , a decrease in health expenses , and a decrease in life expectancy . Inflation causes the imposition of welfare costs by reducing the value of people 's financial assets , and on the other hand , it harms production by creating uncertainty in the decisions of institutions for investment and creating other costs . Inflation leads to sub - optimal allocation of resources , economic inefficiency and social , cultural and political disorder of the society . Unemployment , like inflation , is the cause of chaos in the economic conditions of the society . unemployment has caused people to suffer from social problems such as crimes , addiction and moral corruption . Unemployment causes people to get caught in social problems such as crime, addiction and moral corruption. Methodology therefore , knowledge and awareness of the state of Misery index in the regions of the country in certain time horizons are very important for the planners of the region and economic policy makers of the country. Considering the importance of the misery index, This question is raised, what are the factors affecting the convergence of the misery index in the provinces? In this regard, several studies have been conducted in the field of misery index. However, none of the studies have investigated the influence of the factors affecting the convergence of the misery index in the provinces using spatial econometrics. Therefore, this study has an innovative aspect. in economic literature there are several methods for investigating the convergence. Absolute beta convergence and conditional beta convergence have been used in this study . Absolute beta convergence is formed independently of initial conditions and other characteristics of an economy . For this purpose, using theoretical foundations and empirical studies, the variables of economic growth, monetary indiscipline, human capital, and information and communications technology (ICT) were added to the convergence model as explanatory variables. Absolute beta convergence and conditional beta convergence models have been estimated using the spatial econometric method in the period of 2006-2020. in this study , after defining the spatial weight matrix , the unit root test is used to examine the " stationary " of the data .for detection of spatial autocorrelation , moran test and to examine the presence or absence of spatial effects , the lagrange multiplier test is used . Chow's test was used to determine whether the data is a panel, and Hausman's spatial test was used to use the fixed or random effect method finally , the results of model estimation and direct and indirect effects and effects of space spillovers with " spatial econometrics method " have been analyzed .accounting for direct and indirect effects was done in stata software . The calculations of the overflow coefficients of each province on other provinces and the drawing of maps were done using R software and Maptools, Spdep and IMPact function packages for the year 2019. in this regard , statistical data including : inflation and unemployment are used to calculate misery , gross domestic product , population, number of university graduates ( as human capital index ) from statistical yearbook in the province and statistical center of iran.the penetration coefficient of the internet (as ict indicator) from communications and information technology , as well as facilities and deposits after deducting legal trust from the " central bank of iran " has been extracted . The statistical population of this study is the provinces of Iran except "Alborz" province. the results of data stationary using levin , lin and chu ( 2002 ) method showed that all variables are stationary at the stationary level Also , the null hypothesis of Moran 's test regarding the absence of spatial effects in absolute convergence model and conditional convergence model was rejected . Therefore , the presence of spatial effects in absolute and conditional convergence models was confirmed . According to the conducted tests , the spatial autoregression method ( SAC ) was used in this study . The results of the spatial Hausman test also showed that the estimation of the models should be done using the fixed effects method. Findings The results of estimating the models showed that economic growth and human capital have a negative and significant effect, (ict) and monetary indiscipline of banks have a positive and significant effect on the convergence of the misery index in the provinces. According to the speed of convergence , in the case of annual absolute convergence of about 10.9 % and in the case of conditional convergence of about 12.6 % , the gap and difference between the " current growth rate of the misery index " of the provinces and the " long - term equilibrium misery index " of the provinces will be resolved . In the case of conditional convergence , the time required to eliminate half of the aforementioned difference ( gap ) is about 5.5 years . It should be noted that in this study the misery index is a negative variable and the interpretation of the beta coefficient means that there is an opposite relationship between the initial situation and the average growth rate of the misery index: That is, regions with a lower "misery index" move towards the average misery index with a higher speed and higher growth rate than other regions; (that is, the economic situation of the provinces is getting worse). Therefore , it is expected that the provinces will converge to their long - term equilibrium misery index and the gap between the current growth rate of the province 's misery index and its long - term equilibrium misery index will be resolved . Discussion and Conclusion According to the positive and significant effect of the monetary indiscipline index on the convergence of the misery index in the provinces, it can be seen that with the increase of monetary indiscipline in the banks, liquidity has increased at the community level, and as a result, it has caused an increase in the general level of prices and an increase in the misery index. On the other hand, due to the economic situation of Iran, the existence of economic and banking sanctions and the impossibility of financing and investing in foreign sectors, the government's credit facilities and debt to banks have increased, and the monetary indiscipline index of banks is increasing, and as a result, the liquidity risk of banks is increasing. and the lending power of banks will decrease, as a result, it is not possible to grant large bank loans to drive the productive and entrepreneurial sectors in the economic growth of the provinces, and this will cause a decrease in employment, a decrease in the level of production, and then an increase in unemployment. This is why the misery index increases in the provinces. The spatial coefficient of the interval of the dependent variable is positive and significant . The existence of a positive and significant coefficient of the spatial dependence variable shows the positive effect of the poverty index of neighboring provinces on each other , so the distance between the provinces of the country has an effect on the convergence of the poverty index . |
| نویسندگان مقاله |
مریم خداوردی سامانی | maryam khodaverdi samani
PHD of Economics, Department of Economics and Accounting, Faculty of Economics, Lorestan University, Lorestan, Iran
دکتری اقتصاد، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد، دانشگاه لرستان، خرمآباد، ایران
غلامرضا نعمتی | gholamreza nemati
PHD of Economics Managment of Economic Statistics Department of the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran
دکتری اقتصاد بخش عمومی، رئیس اداره آمار اقتصادی بانک مرکزی جمهوری اسلامی
علیرضا کاشفی | alireza kashefi
PhD in Econometrics and Financial Economics, Semnan University, Assistant of Economic Statistics Department of the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran
دکترای اقتصادسنجی و اقتصاد مالی دانشگاه سمنان، معاون اداره آمار اقتصادی بانک مرکزی جمهوری
پروانه سلاطین | Parvaneh Salatin
Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Firoozkooh Branch, Islamic Azad University, Firoozkooh, Iran
استادیار دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، واحد فیروزکوه، گروه اقتصاد، فیروزکوه. ایران
|