این سایت در حال حاضر پشتیبانی نمی شود و امکان دارد داده های نشریات بروز نباشند
پژوهش های اقلیم شناسی، جلد ۱۴۰۲، شماره ۵۶، صفحات ۸۵-۹۳
عنوان فارسی ارزیابی تغییرات اقلیمی و اثرات آن بر عملکرد و رفاه تولید‌کننده و مصرف‌کننده دانه‌های روغنی (کنجد و کلزا )
چکیده فارسی مقاله دانه های روغنی پس از غلات دومین ذخیره غذایی جهان را تشکیل می‌دهند. کنجد یکی از قدیم‌ترین گیاهان روغنی جهان بوده است که به خاطر طعم مطبوع، ثبات و پایداری زیاد، مقاومت زیاد به خشکی و خاصیت اکسیده نشدن روغن به عنوان ملکه گیاهان روغنی شناخته می شود. کنجد به عنوان یک منبع روغنی – پروتئینی مطرح است و دانه های کنجد دارای 34 تا 60 درصد روغن و 19 تا 30 درصد پروتئین است. کلزا یکی دیگر از دانه‌های روغنی است که با دارا بودن بیش از 40 درصد روغن در دانه و حدود 40 درصد پروتئین در کنجاله خود نقش مهمی در تغذیه انسان و خوراک دام و طیور دارد.

تغییر اقلیم یک تغییر معنی‌دار و پایدار در توزیع آماری الگوهای آب و هوایی است که در طولانی‌مدت در یک منطقه خاص یا برای کل اقلیم جهانی رخ می‌دهد. در واقع این پدیده در نتیجه عوامل درونی مانند فرآیندهای دینامیکی زمین و یا عوامل بیرونی چون تغییرات در شدت تابش آفتاب و یا فعالیت‌های انسانی اتفاق می‌افتد.

در اثر تغییر اقلیم متوسط متغیرهای آب و هوایی مانند دما و بارش ثابت نمانده و در مناطق مختلف تغییر می‌کند.

هدف از انجام این مطالعه ارزیابی تغییر اقلیم و پیش‌بینی اثرات آن بر عملکرد و رفاه تولید کننده و رفاه مصرف کننده دو محصول کنجد و کلزا می‌باشد. داده‌‌های مورد نیاز هواشناسی و کشاورزی طی سالهای 1400-1370 به صورت داده‌های ترکیبی برای دو محصول جمع‌آوری شد. با استفاده از سناریوهای پیش‌بینی آب و هوا، عملکرد دو محصول پیش‌بینی شد. در نهایت به کمک مدل برنامه‌ریزی غیرخطی رفاه مصرف‌کننده، رفاه تولیدکننده و رفاه کل با استفاده از روش تعادل جزیی محاسبه و پیش‌بینی شد. برای انجام این مطالعه از نرم افزارهای Eviews ،Excel و GAMS استفاده شد. برای برآورد دقیق‌تر تابع واکنش عملکرد استان خوزستان به سه منطقه اقلیمی پهنه‌بندی شد.
کلیدواژه‌های فارسی مقاله تابع واکنش عملکرد،داده های تابلویی،رفاه،سناریوی پیش‌بینی آب و هوا،مؤلفه های اقلیمی،
عنوان انگلیسی Evaluation of climate changes and its effects on the performance and well-being of producers and consumers of oilseeds (sesame and rapeseed).
چکیده انگلیسی مقاله Abstract

Introduction

After cereals, oilseeds form the second largest food reserve in the world. Sesame has been one of the oldest oil plants in the world, which is known as the queen of oil plants due to its pleasant taste, high stability and stability, high resistance to dryness and the fact that the oil does not oxidize. Sesame is considered as an oil-protein source and sesame seeds contain 34-60% oil and 19-30% protein. Rapeseed is another oilseed that has more than 40% of oil in the seed and about 40% of protein in its meal, which plays an important role in human nutrition and animal and poultry feed.

Climate change is a significant and persistent change in the statistical distribution of weather patterns that occurs over a long period of time in a specific region or for the entire global climate. In fact, this phenomenon occurs as a result of internal factors such as dynamic processes of the earth or external factors such as changes in the intensity of sunlight or human activities.

As a result of climate change, the average weather variables such as temperature and precipitation do not remain constant and change in different regions.

Materials and methods

The purpose of this study is to evaluate climate change and predict its effects on the performance and well-being of the producer and the well-being of the consumer of the two products of sesame and canola. The required meteorological and agricultural data were collected in the form of combined data for two crops during 1370-1398. Using weather forecasting scenarios, the performance of two products was predicted. Finally, with the help of non-linear programming model, consumer welfare, producer welfare and total welfare were calculated and predicted using the partial balance method. Eviews, Excel and GAMS software were used to conduct this study. Khuzestan province was zoned into three climatic zones for more accurate estimation of yield response function.

Results and discussion

In this research, the climatic conditions of Iran in the decades of 2000, 2025, 2050 and 2100 were modeled using the output of two atmospheric general circulation models ECHAM4 and HadCM 2. The results show an increase in the temperature of all the provinces of the country in the coming decades. These two models predicted an average temperature increase of 3 to 3.6 degrees Celsius until the 2100s for the country. The panel data method is used to estimate the climate model.

Conclusion

According to the results obtained from the calculation of welfare, it was found that the welfare surplus of the producer is higher than the welfare surplus of the consumer, and the results obtained from the welfare forecast according to the climate scenarios show that the amount of welfare generally follows a decreasing trend with fluctuation and The amount of losses caused by climate change has been higher for consumers than for producers.

Keywords

Performance response function, panel data, well-being, weather forecast scenario, climatic components



Abstract

Introduction

After cereals, oilseeds form the second largest food reserve in the world. Sesame has been one of the oldest oil plants in the world, which is known as the queen of oil plants due to its pleasant taste, high stability and stability, high resistance to dryness and the fact that the oil does not oxidize. Sesame is considered as an oil-protein source and sesame seeds contain 34-60% oil and 19-30% protein. Rapeseed is another oilseed that has more than 40% of oil in the seed and about 40% of protein in its meal, which plays an important role in human nutrition and animal and poultry feed.

Climate change is a significant and persistent change in the statistical distribution of weather patterns that occurs over a long period of time in a specific region or for the entire global climate. In fact, this phenomenon occurs as a result of internal factors such as dynamic processes of the earth or external factors such as changes in the intensity of sunlight or human activities.

As a result of climate change, the average weather variables such as temperature and precipitation do not remain constant and change in different regions.

Materials and methods

The purpose of this study is to evaluate climate change and predict its effects on the performance and well-being of the producer and the well-being of the consumer of the two products of sesame and canola. The required meteorological and agricultural data were collected in the form of combined data for two crops during 1370-1398. Using weather forecasting scenarios, the performance of two products was predicted. Finally, with the help of non-linear programming model, consumer welfare, producer welfare and total welfare were calculated and predicted using the partial balance method. Eviews, Excel and GAMS software were used to conduct this study. Khuzestan province was zoned into three climatic zones for more accurate estimation of yield response function.

Results and discussion

In this research, the climatic conditions of Iran in the decades of 2000, 2025, 2050 and 2100 were modeled using the output of two atmospheric general circulation models ECHAM4 and HadCM 2. The results show an increase in the temperature of all the provinces of the country in the coming decades. These two models predicted an average temperature increase of 3 to 3.6 degrees Celsius until the 2100s for the country. The panel data method is used to estimate the climate model.

Conclusion

According to the results obtained from the calculation of welfare, it was found that the welfare surplus of the producer is higher than the welfare surplus of the consumer, and the results obtained from the welfare forecast according to the climate scenarios show that the amount of welfare generally follows a decreasing trend with fluctuation and The amount of losses caused by climate change has been higher for consumers than for producers.

Keywords

Performance response function, panel data, well-being, weather forecast scenario, climatic components
کلیدواژه‌های انگلیسی مقاله تابع واکنش عملکرد,داده های تابلویی,رفاه,سناریوی پیش‌بینی آب و هوا,مؤلفه های اقلیمی
نویسندگان مقاله سیده لاله سادات اصل |
دانشجوی دکتری، گروه کشاورزی، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران

امین دلاور |
دکتری، اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران

نسیم پاکباز |
دکتری فیزیولوژی گیاهان زراعی، دانشگاه شاهد، تهران

غلامرضا یاوری |
دانشیار، گروه کشاورزی، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران

نشانی اینترنتی https://clima.irimo.ir/article_186605_8c79e07a393db74177e04271ba9abb10.pdf
فایل مقاله فایلی برای مقاله ذخیره نشده است
کد مقاله (doi)
زبان مقاله منتشر شده fa
موضوعات مقاله منتشر شده
نوع مقاله منتشر شده
برگشت به: صفحه اول پایگاه   |   نسخه مرتبط   |   نشریه مرتبط   |   فهرست نشریات