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ژئوپلیتیک، جلد ۲۰، شماره ۴، صفحات ۷۸-۱۰۴
عنوان فارسی Strategies for Iran’s Security Policy in the twenty-year Vision
چکیده فارسی مقاله Futurology is an interdisciplinary field of research that predicts and presents possible futures using diverse methods. Also, Security is the most famous concept in human history and the pursuit of a secure state has been the first choice of political units throughout history. Accordingly, the futurology of the security of Iran is the main topic of this article, which tries to present the secure state and possible and optimal scenarios for the security of Iran in the twenty-year vision. In other words, the objective of this article is to identify the geopolitical criteria affecting the security of Iran and to introduce its desirable security future with a futuristic approach in the twenty-year vision. This article is fundamental research that uses quantitative and qualitative models. First, with the help of existing studies in security, its criteria are classified into six groups: military, economic, geographical, cultural, political, and environmental. Second, the effective criteria for the security of Iran are presented, and third, the opinions of experts are collected through a questionnaire. The data and key criteria for optimal security of Iran in the new century were analyzed and extracted by the TOPSIS method. The results showed that the three criteria of ‘Strengthen infrastructure’, ‘Impacts of Climate Change’, and ‘Increasing military capabilities' are the key geopolitical criteria of the security for Iran. These three criteria create eight security scenarios. Finally, the scenario of ‘strengthen multidimensional infrastructure, adapt to climate change, and increase hardware military capabilities’ with a higher score, should be the criterion for formulating the roposed security perspective of Iran in the new century.
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عنوان انگلیسی Strategies for Iran’s Security Policy in the twenty-year Vision
چکیده انگلیسی مقاله Futurology is an interdisciplinary field of research that predicts and presents possible futures using diverse methods. Also, Security is the most famous concept in human history and the pursuit of a secure state has been the first choice of political units throughout history. Accordingly, the futurology of the security of Iran is the main topic of this article, which tries to present the secure state and possible and optimal scenarios for the security of Iran in the twenty-year vision. In other words, the objective of this article is to identify the geopolitical criteria affecting the security of Iran and to introduce its desirable security future with a futuristic approach in the twenty-year vision. This article is fundamental research that uses quantitative and qualitative models. First, with the help of existing studies in security, its criteria are classified into six groups: military, economic, geographical, cultural, political, and environmental. Second, the effective criteria for the security of Iran are presented, and third, the opinions of experts are collected through a questionnaire. The data and key criteria for optimal security of Iran in the new century were analyzed and extracted by the TOPSIS method. The results showed that the three criteria of ‘Strengthen infrastructure’, ‘Impacts of Climate Change’, and ‘Increasing military capabilities' are the key geopolitical criteria of the security for Iran. These three criteria create eight security scenarios. Finally, the scenario of ‘strengthen multidimensional infrastructure, adapt to climate change, and increase hardware military capabilities’ with a higher score, should be the criterion for formulating the roposed security perspective of Iran in the new century.
کلیدواژه‌های انگلیسی مقاله Iran,Security,infrastructure,climate change,Military capabilities
نویسندگان مقاله Majid Gholami |
Assistant Professor, Governance Faculty, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.

Mahyar Hassani |
Phd Student, Public Policy, School of Management, Economics and Progress Engineering, Iran University of Science and Technology, Tehran, Iran.

Shahabeddin Shafi |
Phd Student, Political Geography, Faculty of Geography, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.

نشانی اینترنتی https://journal.iag.ir/article_191621_d745b4bd1d0a738408c5c8721b507838.pdf
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