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پژوهش های رشد و توسعه پایدار، جلد ۲۳، شماره ۲، صفحات ۶۷-۹۰
عنوان فارسی نقش صندوق های سرمایه گذاری در رشد اقتصادی ایران
چکیده فارسی مقاله اقتصاد ایران، همواره با مشکل نقدینگی و تأمین مالی برای بخش های تولید مواجه بوده است. صندوق های سرمایه گذاری به عنوان یک متخصص مالی، با توجه به پتانسیل های موجود، می توانند این مشکل را تعدیل کنند. در این ارتباط هدف از مطالعه حاضر، آن بوده است که به بررسی تأثیر احتمالی صندوق های سرمایه گذاری بر رشد اقتصادی ایران بپردازیم. برای این هدف، اقتصادی با سه بخش تولید، خانوار و صندوق سرمایه گذاری در نظر گرفته شده است. مدل پیشنهادی برای سال‌های 1389:1 تا 1399:4 در دوره‌های فصلی با روش گشتاورهای تعمیم ‌یافته (GMM) برآورد شده، و نتایج، نشان می دهد که سرمایه گذاری صندوق های سرمایه گذاری در بازار اولیه، تأثیر مثبت و معناداری بر تولید ناخالص داخلی داشته است. جریان ورودی صندوق‌های سرمایه‌گذاری مشترک، تأثیر معنا‌داری بر تولید ناخالص داخلی ندارد. اثر متقابل جریان وجوه صندوق و سرمایه گذاری اولیه صندوق، تأثیر منفی و معناداری بر تولید ناخالص داخلی دارد. بنابراین بر اساس یافته های مدل، صندوق های سرمایه گذاری به واسطۀ جذب و تخصیص منابع، با رفع بخشی از کمبود نقدینگی بخش های تولید، می توانند اثر مثبتی بر رشد اقتصادی بگذارند. در انتها، توصیه سیاستی بر اساس نتایج مدل، این است که سیاست گذاران، توسعه کمی و کیفی صندوق های سرمایه گذاری را در سیاست های کوتاه مدت و بلند مدت، مورد توجه قرار دهند.
کلیدواژه‌های فارسی مقاله صندوق سرمایه گذاری،بازار سرمایه،رشد اقتصادی،بازار اولیه،مدل گشتاور های تعمیم یافته (GMM)،
عنوان انگلیسی Role of Mutual funds in Economic Growth in Iran
چکیده انگلیسی مقاله Aim and Introduction
The development of financial markets is critical for economic growth. One of the most important financial markets is the capital and stock market, where the prosperity of the stock market and financing through the stock market can develop any country's economy. Capital market development requires the efficient performance of financial intermediaries, including mutual funds. Iran’s economy has always faced the problem of insufficient liquidity and financing for production sectors. As a financial tool, mutual funds can moderate this problem with their existing potential. Therefore, the study aims to investigate the probable effect of mutual funds on economic growth.
Methodology
In the previous studies that have been done in this field, the descriptive-analytical aspect of the subject has been discussed. But these studies didn't provide an appropriate framework for analyzing the effect of mutual funds on economic growth. For this purpose, in the present study, based on the theoretical literature, a general equilibrium model has been designed, and the output of this model is obtained according to the optimization of different sectors of the economy. Assume a closed economy where mutual funds are investors with information and allocate capital to high-productivity firms. The economy has a single period with two production components, a representative mutual fund, and a representative household. We assume a high-productivity firm (H) and a low-productivity firm (L) with an equal number of producers. Both firms can obtain funds by issuing new stocks in the primary market. There is one representative mutual fund in the economy that can invest on behalf of the representative household. Therefore, the fund can invest as much as the fund flows (F) received from the household at the beginning of the period. We assume the mutual fund has sufficient access to information and production technology and can detect high-productivity firms. The household seeks to maximize utility, and the proposed utility function consists of only consumption. As utility and consumption are positively related, utility maximization is equivalent to consumption maximization. However, since the present study adopted a single-period economy, consumption equals income. Thus, maximum utility is represented by maximum income. Initial capital (W) can be directly invested in the primary market or indirectly invested in the secondary market by the mutual fund. This framework is a new aspect and the main contribution of research in this field. The output of the model is estimated using the GMM method for the period 2010:2 to 2020:4.
Findings
According to Table 5, most coefficients are statistically significant. The first lag of GDP was expectedly found to have a positive, significant impact on the GDP level and, thus, economic growth. Mutual fund investment was observed to have a positive, significant impact on GDP; a 1% rise in fund investment, on average, leads to a 0.473% increase in GDP. This finding is consistent with our theoretical framework. We expect mutual funds’ investments in the primary market, positively impact GDP since mutual funds have an information advantage over individual investors. Thus, they can optimally allocate resources to high-productivity firms (i.e., mutual funds have a higher ability than individual investors to identify high-productivity firms in light of their information advantage). The household wealth coefficient was estimated to be 0.255, suggesting that a 1% increase in the household’s wealth raises GDP by 0.255% on average. This finding is consistent with economic theories. The interaction of wealth and fund investment was estimated to have a coefficient of 0.257, implying a significant relationship. This coefficient was expectedly found to be positive, consistent with modeling. The interaction of fund flows and fund investment significantly affects GDP with a coefficient of -0.174. This coefficient was expectedly found to be negative, consistent with modeling. Fund flows were estimated to have no significant impact on GDP. Although it was found to have the expected sign, it has an insignificant impact on GDP and thus cannot be interpreted. The coefficient of the secondary market return was found to be significant only at a confidence level of 90%.
Discussion and Conclusion
Overall, mutual funds have a positive impact on GDP. These funds may improve the performance of Iran’s financial markets if they acquire an appropriate position in the financial market. A large number of individual traders have begun to trade on Iran’s stock market without financial knowledge and suffered massive losses in 2020-2021. If the mutual fund sector is active in Iran, in addition to the optimal allocation of resources, it can also help people for investment in the stock market and prevent crises such as 2020-2021. Eventually, the policy recommendation is that policymakers pay more attention to the development of mutual funds in short- and long-term policies.
Keywords: Mutual fund, Capital market, Economic growth, Primary market, GMM
JEL Classification: G11, G23, G51
کلیدواژه‌های انگلیسی مقاله صندوق سرمایه گذاری,بازار سرمایه,رشد اقتصادی,بازار اولیه,مدل گشتاور های تعمیم یافته (GMM)
نویسندگان مقاله مصطفی کرمی اردالی |
دانشجوی دکتری علوم اقتصادی، دانشکده علوم اجتماعی اقتصاد و مدیریت، دانشگاه شیراز، شیراز، ایران

حسین مرزبان |
دانشیار گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده علوم اجتماعی اقتصاد و مدیریت، دانشگاه شیراز، شیراز، ایران

علی حسین صمدی |
استاد گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده علوم اجتماعی اقتصاد و مدیریت، دانشگاه شیراز، شیراز، ایران

امین ناظمی |
استادیار بخش حسابداری، دانشگاه شیراز، فارس، ایران

نشانی اینترنتی https://ecor.modares.ac.ir/article_13555_4131214a943d3b4a53b96eaddbd548b3.pdf
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