| چکیده انگلیسی مقاله |
A B S T R A C T One of the most important issues of the 21st century is the growth of the urban population and the massive movement of urban immigrants. Climatic and environmental changes can cause this event. This research has been conducted with the aim of investigating the effect of water resources on urbanization developments in the metropolitan area of Isfahan. The method in this research is descriptive-analytical, and it is done by using the analysis of census data and statistics of urban blocks, as well as the analysis of Landsat satellite images. The weighted geographic regression method was used in the two periods of 2006 and 2016 to analyze the effects of water resources on urbanization developments. The findings show that the most uses of this area are for agriculture, drinking, and industry, respectively. The amount of water consumption and discharge decreased from 2006 to 2016, but the number of deep and semi-deep wells has increased. The results of geographic regression show that the highest level of influence of underground water level changes and population movements is in the area of Isfahan metropolis and the west of the region along the route of the cities around the Zayandeh Rud River so that the highest level of influence of the independent variable is in the north and northeast of Isfahan city, and the western cities of the region. Extended Abstract Introduction Urbanization is one of the most important demographic trends of the 21st century. Most of the population growth is concentrated in cities and urban centers. Urbanization processes increase the process of economic development and transform it from an agricultural economy to an industrial and service economy. There is a strong correlation between population density and economy, which explains why urban areas are centers of production, sales, jobs, and workers. The main argument presented here is that cities develop in cycles rather than in a linear fashion. Throughout history, cities have sometimes shrunk; indeed, shrinking seems to be a normal part of any city's overall history. This shows that "permanent growth" is not real - long-term growth during industrialization and modernity is only one stage in a city's evolution. This theory describes four stages of urban development: urbanization, marginalization, de-urbanization, and re-urbanization through centralization/decentralization and growth/decline of total urban functional areas. Today, this theory is more widely applied to the entire urban application area. Urban development is a continuous cyclical process of change. Every city may experience different stages of development during its history as growth, stagnation, decline, or even death. Both internal and external factors influence the development process and outcomes. Due to the location of Isfahan province in the central desert of Iran, this area has been affected by climate changes and the occurrence of different periods of drought. However, the existence of the Zayandeh Rud River has guaranteed the life of the residents of this area and the development of urbanization for a long time. The Zendeh Rud stream has faced many challenges in the past decades. The ecological balance of the region has been greatly disturbed by the excessive harvesting of this valuable resource, especially by the drilling of authorized and unauthorized wells, the increasing pressure on the consumption of water resources with the development of industrial settlements, and extensive migrations. These conditions have led to a new cycle of spatial urbanization resulting from climate change and the reduction of water resources in the metropolitan area of Isfahan. The present study was conducted with the aim of investigating the effects of water resources on urbanization developments in Isfahan metropolitan area in the periods of 2006 and 2016. Methodology In order to investigate the changes in the urban population of the Isfahan metropolitan area, the results of the general population and housing census in 2006 and 2016 were used. The groundwater level information of Isfahan metropolitan area between 2006 and 2016 was received from Iran's Regional Water Studies Center and was converted into a GIS (Geographic Information System) map layer based on the latitude and longitude of the points in ArcGIS software. The collected data were converted from grid to point, and then using the Fishnet tool in ArcGIS, a 2 square kilometer grid was created for the metropolitan area of Isfahan. Data related to the urban and rural populations, LST, MNDWI, NDVI, piezometric water level, and well depth were analyzed in the framework of a fish grid with 15547 cells. Using the geographically weighted regression method, first, the cells that did not have values were removed from the analysis process, and then the cells with values were entered into the model, and the effect of each of the environmental criteria on urbanization developments was analyzed. Results and discussion Spatial-temporal changes in urbanization in the Isfahan metropolitan area from 2006 to 2016 were about 463 thousand 985 people. In the last 2 decades, the urban population of Isfahan has increased from 3 million and 535 thousand people in 2006 to more than 3 million and 999 thousand people in 2016. This study shows that the population of Isfahan has changed between 2006 and 2016. Many small and marginal settlements in the eastern and western regions have lost their population, and this population is mainly concentrated in large cities such as Isfahan and its surroundings. The piezometric level of underground water in the metropolitan area of Isfahan shows that the highest level of exploitation was in Isfahan city and its surroundings, which consequently caused a sharp drop in the water level above 130 meters. In contrast, the lowest level of exploitation was located in the west of the region and along the western route of the Zayandeh Rud River, where this river enters the metropolitan area of Isfahan. As a result, the water level in this area is at a high level and is less than 15 meters deep. The results show a negative relationship between population growth and decreased groundwater depth in spatial units. In other words, with the increase in population growth and their density, the underground water level has also decreased significantly. Conclusion The results show a negative relationship between population growth and decreased groundwater depth in spatial units. In other words, with the increase in population growth and their density, the underground water level has also decreased significantly. In 2016, compared to 2006, the exact condition applied to NDVI and MNDWI variables. Thus, lands with high soil moisture and greater vegetation density attracted more population. The range of high population density has become more continuous, and with this rate increase, soil moisture, and vegetation have decreased compared to the same period, so its severity will be more noticeable in the coming decades. Funding There is no funding support. Authors’ Contribution Authors contributed equally to the conceptualization and writing of the article. All of the authors approved thecontent of the manuscript and agreed on all aspects of the work declaration of competing interest none. Conflict of Interest Authors declared no conflict of interest. Acknowledgments We are grateful to all the scientific consultants of this paper. |