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محیط شناسی، جلد ۴۳، شماره ۲، صفحات ۲۸۵-۳۰۱
عنوان فارسی تحلیل تغییرات کاربری زمین و نیرومحرکه‌های اقتصادی- اجتماعی تخریب زمین در ذخیره‌گاه زیست‌کره ارسباران
چکیده فارسی مقاله مناطق حفاظت‌شده علی‌رغم اقدامات حفاظتی در معرض تغییرات کاربری زمین قرار می‌گیرند که این تغییرات ناشی از محرکه‌های مختلفی به‌خصوص نیرومحرکه‌های اقتصادی- اجتماعی هستند. هدف این تحقیق بررسی ارتباط تغییرات کاربری زمین و متغیرهای اقتصادی- اجتماعی آن در ذخیره‌گاه زیست‌کره ارسباران است. در این راستا الگوی تغییرات کاربری زمین در طول 24 سال گذشته برای کل منطقه و هم‌چنین زون‌های مدیریتی با استفاده از فنون سنجش‌ازدوری بررسی شد. ارتباط و همبستگی تغییرات کاربری زمین (متغیر وابسته) با چهار متغیر اقتصادی-اجتماعی؛ درصد تغییر جمعیت، درصد تغییر باسوادی، درصد تغییر اشتغال و درصد تغییر بعد خانوار (متغیرهای مستقل) با استفاده از رگرسیون چند متغیره مورد تجزیه‌وتحلیل و مدل‌سازی آماری قرار گرفت. نتایج نشان‌دهنده تخریب 59/5464 و 07/1351 هکتاری سطوح جنگلی به ترتیب در کل منطقه و زون مرکزی بین سال‌های 1989 تا 2013 هست. در این بازه میزان کل تخریب در منطقه برابر 24/12012 هکتار به دست آمد. بررسی همبستگی پارامترهای مستقل با پارامتر وابسته نشان‌دهنده معنی‌دار نبودن درصد تغییر سواد بوده و از مدل حذف شد. متغیرهای باقی‌مانده در مدل لوجستیک و استفاده از روش اینتر به‌عنوان الگوریتم مدل‌سازی خطی وارد شدند و مدل همبستگی و پیش‌بینی تخریب از طریق متغیرهای اقتصادی- اجتماعی حاصل شد.
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عنوان انگلیسی Analyzing land use change and socio-economic driving forces of land degradation in Arasbaran Biosphere Reserve
چکیده انگلیسی مقاله Despite conservation action in the protected areas, land use changes (LUC) occur within these areas. These changes rise from several drivers especially socio-economic driving forces. This research aims to analyze relation between LUC and socio-economic variables in Arasbaran Biosphere Reserve. In this regard, previous and current pattern of LUC over past 24 years extracted using RS techniques both for the whole area and the each of the zones within the Arasbaran BR. The correlation between the LUC and four socio-economic variables (population, occupational, literacy and household size growth rate) was analyzed through statistical analysis. Results indicated 5464.59 and 1351.07 ha deforested respectively in the whole area and the core zone during 1989 to 2013. Total degradation was about 12012.24 ha. The literacy variable was not significant and so omitted form the regression model. The remnant variables analyzed by Logistic model by enter techniques as a linear regression and so the regression model for predicting the land degradation through socio-economic variables was obtained. Despite conservation action in the protected areas, land use changes (LUC) occur within these areas. These changes rise from several drivers especially socio-economic driving forces. This research aims to analyze relation between LUC and socio-economic variables in Arasbaran Biosphere Reserve. In this regard, previous and current pattern of LUC over past 24 years extracted using RS techniques both for the whole area and the each of the zones within the Arasbaran BR. The correlation between the LUC and four socio-economic variables (population, occupational, literacy and household size growth rate) was analyzed through statistical analysis. Results indicated 5464.59 and 1351.07 ha deforested respectively in the whole area and the core zone during 1989 to 2013. Total degradation was about 12012.24 ha. The literacy variable was not significant and so omitted form the regression model. The remnant variables analyzed by Logistic model by enter techniques as a linear regression and so the regression model for predicting the land degradation through socio-economic variables was obtained. Despite conservation action in the protected areas, land use changes (LUC) occur within these areas. These changes rise from several drivers especially socio-economic driving forces. This research aims to analyze relation between LUC and socio-economic variables in Arasbaran Biosphere Reserve. In this regard, previous and current pattern of LUC over past 24 years extracted using RS techniques both for the whole area and the each of the zones within the Arasbaran BR. The correlation between the LUC and four socio-economic variables (population, occupational, literacy and household size growth rate) was analyzed through statistical analysis. Results indicated 5464.59 and 1351.07 ha deforested respectively in the whole area and the core zone during 1989 to 2013. Total degradation was about 12012.24 ha. The literacy variable was not significant and so omitted form the regression model. The remnant variables analyzed by Logistic model by enter techniques as a linear regression and so the regression model for predicting the land degradation through socio-economic variables was obtained. Despite conservation action in the protected areas, land use changes (LUC) occur within these areas. These changes rise from several drivers especially socio-economic driving forces. This research aims to analyze relation between LUC and socio-economic variables in Arasbaran Biosphere Reserve. In this regard, previous and current pattern of LUC over past 24 years extracted using RS techniques both for the whole area and the each of the zones within the Arasbaran BR. The correlation between the LUC and four socio-economic variables (population, occupational, literacy and household size growth rate) was analyzed through statistical analysis. Results indicated 5464.59 and 1351.07 ha deforested respectively in the whole area and the core zone during 1989 to 2013. Total degradation was about 12012.24 ha. The literacy variable was not significant and so omitted form the regression model. The remnant variables analyzed by Logistic model by enter techniques as a linear regression and so the regression model for predicting the land degradation through socio-economic variables was obtained. Despite conservation action in the protected areas, land use changes (LUC) occur within these areas. These changes rise from several drivers especially socio-economic driving forces. This research aims to analyze relation between LUC and socio-economic variables in Arasbaran Biosphere Reserve. In this regard, previous and current pattern of LUC over past 24 years extracted using RS techniques both for the whole area and the each of the zones within the Arasbaran BR. The correlation between the LUC and four socio-economic variables (population, occupational, literacy and household size growth rate) was analyzed through statistical analysis. Results indicated 5464.59 and 1351.07 ha deforested respectively in the whole area and the core zone during 1989 to 2013. Total degradation was about 12012.24 ha. The literacy variable was not significant and so omitted form the regression model. The remnant variables analyzed by Logistic model by enter techniques as a linear regression and so the regression model for predicting the land degradation through socio-economic variables was obtained. Despite conservation action in the protected areas, land use changes (LUC) occur within these areas. These changes rise from several drivers especially socio-economic driving forces. This research aims to analyze relation between LUC and socio-economic variables in Arasbaran Biosphere Reserve. In this regard, previous and current pattern of LUC over past 24 years extracted using RS techniques both for the whole area and the each of the zones within the Arasbaran BR. The correlation between the LUC and four socio-economic variables (population, occupational, literacy and household size growth rate) was analyzed through statistical analysis. Results indicated 5464.59 and 1351.07 ha deforested respectively in the whole area and the core zone during 1989 to 2013. Total degradation was about 12012.24 ha. The literacy variable was not significant and so omitted form the regression model. The remnant variables analyzed by Logistic model by enter techniques as a linear regression and so the regression model for predicting the land degradation through socio-economic variables was obtained. Despite conservation action in the protected areas, land use changes (LUC) occur within these areas. These changes rise from several drivers especially socio-economic driving forces. This research aims to analyze relation between LUC and socio-economic variables in Arasbaran Biosphere Reserve. In this regard, previous and current pattern of LUC over past 24 years extracted using RS techniques both for the whole area and the each of the zones within the Arasbaran BR. The correlation between the LUC and four socio-economic variables (population, occupational, literacy and household size growth rate) was analyzed through statistical analysis. Results indicated 5464.59 and 1351.07 ha deforested respectively in the whole area and the core zone during 1989 to 2013. Total degradation was about 12012.24 ha. The literacy variable was not significant and so omitted form the regression model. The remnant variables analyzed by Logistic model by enter techniques as a linear regression and so the regression model for predicting the land degradation through socio-economic variables was obtained.
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نویسندگان مقاله وحید امینی پارسا |
دانشجوی دکتری برنامه ریزی محیط زیست، دانشکده محیط زیست دانشگاه تهران
سازمان اصلی تایید شده: دانشکده محیط زیست

احمدرضا یاوری |
دانشیار گروه برنامه ریزی و مدیریت دانشکده محیط زیست
سازمان اصلی تایید شده: دانشکده محیط زیست

اطهره نژادی |
دکتری برنامه ریزی محیط زیست، دانشگاه تهران
سازمان اصلی تایید شده: دانشگاه تهران (Tehran university)

نشانی اینترنتی http://jes.ut.ac.ir/article_63079_7ad1314be0b8eda313bf1a98c7f32686.pdf
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