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Iranian Journal of Public Health، جلد ۴۷، شماره ۴، صفحات ۴۹۹-۵۰۹
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عنوان انگلیسی A Time Series Analysis: Weather Factors, Human Migration and Malaria Cases in Endemic Area of Purworejo, Indonesia, 2005-2014
چکیده انگلیسی مقاله Abstract Background: Climatic and weather factors become important determinants of vector-borne diseases transmission like malaria. This study aimed to prove relationships between weather factors with considering human migration and previous case findings and malaria cases in endemic areas in Purworejo during 2005-2014. Methods: This study employed ecological time series analysis by using monthly data. The independent variables were the maximum temperature, minimum temperature, maximum humidity, minimum humidity, precipitation, human migration, and previous malaria cases, while the dependent variable was positive malaria cases. Three models of count data regression analysis i.e. Poisson model, quasi-Poisson model, and negative binomial model were applied to measure the relationship. The least Akaike Information Criteria (AIC) value was also performed to find the best model. Negative binomial regression analysis was considered as the best model. Results: The model showed that humidity (lag 2), precipitation (lag 3), precipitation (lag 12), migration (lag1) and previous malaria cases (lag 12) had a significant relationship with malaria cases. Conclusion: Weather, migration and previous malaria cases factors need to be considered as prominent indicators for the increase of malaria case projection.
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نویسندگان مقاله | Dwi Sarwani Sri REJEKI
Dept. of Mathematics, Faculty of Mathematics and Science, Universitas Jenderal Soedirman, Purwokerto, Indonesia


| Nunung NURHAYATI
Dept. of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, Universitas Jenderal Soedirman, Purwokerto, Indonesia


| Budi AJI
Center for Tropical Medicine and Department of Parasitology, Faculty of Medicine, Universitas Gadjah Mada, Yogyakarta, Indonesia


| E. Elsa Herdiana MURHANDARWATI
Dept. of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, Universitas Gadjah Mada, Yogyakarta, Indonesia


| Hari KUSNANTO


نشانی اینترنتی http://ijph.tums.ac.ir/index.php/ijph/article/view/13144
فایل مقاله اشکال در دسترسی به فایل - ./files/site1/rds_journals/86/article-86-582169.pdf
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زبان مقاله منتشر شده en
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