این سایت در حال حاضر پشتیبانی نمی شود و امکان دارد داده های نشریات بروز نباشند
Iranian Economic Review، جلد ۲۲، شماره ۳، صفحات ۷۴۱-۷۵۲
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عنوان انگلیسی The External Determinants of Inflation: The Case of Iran
چکیده انگلیسی مقاله The study of determining the factors affecting inflation or consumer price index has been conducted by many macroeconomic economists nationally as well as internationally. In this paper, we assess the external determinants of inflation dynamics in Iran. For this purpose, we use an OLS single equation model and a vector error correction model (VECM). Results of the analysis reveal that money supply, exchange rate, import price index and intensification of sanctions are contributed in raising general price index in the long run. Long-run elasticity of inflation with respect to money supply, exchange rate, effective tariff and import price index are 0.25, 0.118, 0.087 and 0.71. Moreover, in every year that the severity of sanctions has increased, inflation increases with amount of 0.084 (or 8.4%).Results of OLS single equation model show that only 21% of the domestic inflation variance in short run is explained by the independent variables. Iran's inflation is driven mostly by exchange rate (with one season lag) and effective tariff (with two seasons lag). In the short run, the coefficient of error correction term is -0.13 suggesting 13 percent annual adjustment towards long run equilibrium. General Price index of last year and unit price of imported goods of two years before are found to be positively related with general price index.  
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نویسندگان مقاله Abdolnaser Hemmati |
Department of Economics, Tehran University, Tehran, Iran

Leili Niakan |
Insurance Research Center, Tehran, Iran

Vida Varahrami |
Faculty of Economics, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran

نشانی اینترنتی https://ier.ut.ac.ir/article_66641_11dd0140f091b6b46df251414c7c1f67.pdf
فایل مقاله اشکال در دسترسی به فایل - ./files/site1/rds_journals/434/article-434-684543.pdf
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