| چکیده انگلیسی مقاله |
The fall of Bashar al-Assad, the President of Syria, is one of the key events in the political developments of the Middle East following the Al-Aqsa Storm, which has had far-reaching consequences for both regional and international actors. This paper analyzes the potential impact of this fall on the strategies and priorities of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Utilizing a futures studies analytical approach, the strategic implications of this crisis on Iran’s strategic priorities are examined. Therefore, this study seeks to answer the question: “How will the fall of Bashar al-Assad affect the strategies and priorities of the Islamic Republic of Iran?” In other words, in the post-Assad era and with the relative weakening of the Resistance Axis, what scenarios does the Islamic Republic of Iran face? Based on the futures studies research methodology, several scenarios are presented, and their various dimensions are analyzed. Given that futures studies aim to address uncertainties and complexities about the future and identify multiple possible pathways, the formulation of hypotheses is not conventional. Consequently, hypotheses can only be proposed after resolving future uncertainties and presenting the proposed scenarios. The main finding of the paper emphasizes the need for a revision of Iran’s strategies and the future developments in the Middle East. Introduction
The contemporary international order is experiencing profound and rapid transformations. Shifts in geopolitical alignments, coupled with the growing centrality of economic considerations, are gradually shaping a new global configuration in which foreign policy is increasingly economy-oriented. Within this framework, economic diplomacy has emerged as a crucial tool for states seeking to integrate into global value chains and to strengthen their positions in international politics. While many states have adjusted their foreign policy to reflect these realities, the Islamic Republic of Iran has largely retained a foreign policy orientation driven by ideological commitments and geopolitical imperatives. One of the central pillars of Iran’s regional strategy has been its long-standing alliance with Syria, a relationship dating back to the Iran–Iraq War. Syria has provided Iran with strategic depth, a corridor for supporting Hezbollah in Lebanon, and a pivotal position in the Axis of Resistance. The potential collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, however, introduces significant uncertainty into Iran’s regional calculations. This study addresses the central research question: *How would the downfall of Assad impact Iran’s strategic priorities and foreign policy orientation?* By situating the issue within the broader transformations of the international system, the article explores the implications of such a development for Iran’s security, diplomacy, and regional influence. Theoretical Framework The study is framed within the field of International Political Economy (IPE), with particular reliance on the theoretical contributions of Robert Gilpin and Susan Strange. Gilpin emphasizes the inseparability of economics and security in world politics, while Strange highlights the structural dimensions of power embedded in finance, production, trade, and knowledge. Drawing upon these perspectives, the article evaluates Iran’s foreign policy in relation to five key domains of IPE: international trade, global finance, multinational corporations, North–South relations, and the dynamics of hegemony. This framework allows for a dual-level analysis: first, it highlights the structural constraints Iran faces in linking its foreign policy to economic power; second, it reveals how geopolitical disruptions, such as a regime change in Syria, might further exacerbate these challenges. While Iran rhetorically underscores the economic dimensions of foreign policy, it has not developed the institutional coherence or long-term strategy necessary to conduct effective economic diplomacy. The fall of Assad could intensify this gap, forcing Tehran to confront the contradiction between its ideology-driven security orientation and the economy-centered logic of the emerging international order. Methodology The research employs a futures studies approach, relying on scenario-building and cross-impact analysis as its core methods. Futures studies offer a systematic means to anticipate uncertain outcomes by identifying key drivers, analyzing potential interactions, and constructing plausible trajectories for decision-making. The analysis is descriptive–analytical in nature and is informed by secondary sources, including scholarly literature, policy analyses, and historical records. By integrating scenario-based thinking with comparative historical analysis, the study seeks to capture both the complexity of current regional dynamics and the structural dilemmas facing Iran. This methodology provides policymakers with the tools to anticipate multiple possible outcomes and to design flexible strategies for navigating a volatile environment. Although no single scenario can predict the future with certainty, scenario-building highlights the trade-offs and risks that must be managed if Iran is to preserve its regional influence and adapt to systemic change. Discussion The potential collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime would represent a watershed moment in Middle Eastern politics with far-reaching consequences for Iran’s foreign policy. Syria has long served as a linchpin in Tehran’s regional strategy, providing territorial and political depth for its influence in the Levant. The loss of this ally would thus weaken Iran’s ability to project power through its network of non-state actors and partner movements. It would also embolden rival states such as Israel, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey, while simultaneously creating new openings for global powers to expand their influence in Syria. On the international level, Assad’s downfall would intersect with Iran’s fragile economic position. Already constrained by sanctions and economic mismanagement, Tehran would face heightened challenges in sustaining its foreign policy commitments. The contradiction between ideology-driven regional activism and the demands of an increasingly economy-centered world order would become more apparent. Iran’s ability to mobilize resources, secure external partnerships, and integrate into global economic structures would be further constrained. Domestically, the costs of regional entanglements would intensify public and elite debates over the direction of Iran’s foreign policy. The legitimacy of investing in regional struggles, while domestic economic and social issues remain acute, would be increasingly questioned. This could deepen divisions within the political establishment and pressure policymakers to rethink the balance between ideology and pragmatism. In sum, Assad’s downfall would force Iran to confront several interrelated dilemmas: how to safeguard its regional influence in the absence of a key ally, how to avoid strategic isolation in a shifting balance of power, and how to reconcile its ideological commitments with pressing economic imperatives. Addressing these dilemmas would require greater diplomatic flexibility, a willingness to engage selectively with rival and global powers, and an explicit incorporation of economic priorities into foreign policy design. Conclusion This study demonstrates that the potential collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime is more than a regional disruption—it is a structural challenge to the foundations of Iran’s foreign policy. Without Syria, Tehran risks losing a critical ally that has underpinned its strategic depth and legitimacy as the leader of the Axis of Resistance. The resulting pressures, both external and internal, could constrain Iran’s capacity to sustain its current foreign policy orientation. The analysis concludes that Iran’s ability to navigate the post-Assad landscape will depend on adopting a flexible, proactive, and economy-oriented strategy. While ideological commitments will remain important, they must be balanced with pragmatic diplomacy, regional engagement, and expanded economic partnerships with emerging powers such as China and India. Integrating economic diplomacy into foreign policy is not merely an option but a necessity if Iran seeks to maintain its relevance in the evolving international order. Ultimately, the study underscores that Iran’s strategic resilience in the aftermath of Assad’s downfall will hinge on its capacity to reconcile ideology with pragmatism, security with economy, and resistance with adaptation. By anticipating potential futures and aligning its policies accordingly, Tehran may mitigate the risks of regional contraction and reposition itself within a rapidly transforming global system. . |