این سایت در حال حاضر پشتیبانی نمی شود و امکان دارد داده های نشریات بروز نباشند
Medical Journal of Islamic Republic of Iran، جلد ۳۱، شماره ۱، صفحات ۴۷۸-۴۸۳
عنوان فارسی
چکیده فارسی مقاله
کلیدواژه‌های فارسی مقاله
عنوان انگلیسی Appropriate types of futures studies scenarios in health
چکیده انگلیسی مقاله Background: Scenario is the primary method in futures studies, and thus its improper use can undermine the credibility and claims of the results. There are many scenario types, and here we aimed at understanding whether these scenarios are being used properly in the health field.    Methods: In this study, a combination method was used in 3 phases, and 8 + 2 steps were considered to accommodate the needs of the health sector with capabilities of the main types of scenarios. One of the appropriate methods of futures studies was used at each step.    Results: Scenario planning has evolved along with futures studies paradigms. Trend-based scenarios, intuitive logic, and structural analysis approaches have had the most use in futures scenarios and health section. Quantitative techniques, which are close to the positivist paradigm, have been most widely used; however, participatory methods of futures studies paradigm have been used the least in the health sector.    Conclusions: Health scenario writing in its current state is targeting short- to medium- term futures and does not respond to all requirements. Thus, other backup methods should also be considered. 
کلیدواژه‌های انگلیسی مقاله
نویسندگان مقاله مصطفی حسینی گلکار | mostafa hosseini golkar
faculty of management, university of tehran, tehran, iran, amp; institute of futures studies in health, kerman university of medical sciences, shahab, kerman, iran.

سازمان اصلی تایید شده: دانشگاه علوم پزشکی کرمان (Kerman university of medical sciences)

سید سپهر قاضی نوری | seyed sepehr ghazinoory
department of information management, faculty of human sciences, modarres university, tehran, iran.


فاطمه ثقفی | fatemeh saghafi
faculty of management, tehran university, tehran, iran.

سازمان اصلی تایید شده: دانشگاه تهران (Tehran university)

محمد رحیم عیوضی | mohammad rahim eivazi
department of futures studies, imam-khomeini international university, qazvin, iran.

سازمان اصلی تایید شده: دانشگاه بین المللی امام خمینی (Imam khomeini international university)

آتوسا پورشیخعلی | atousa poursheikhali
institute of futures studies in health, kerman university of medical sciences, kerman, iran.

سازمان اصلی تایید شده: دانشگاه علوم پزشکی کرمان (Kerman university of medical sciences)

رضا دهنویه | reza dehnavieh
institute of futures studies in health, kerman university of medical sciences, kerman, iran.

سازمان اصلی تایید شده: دانشگاه علوم پزشکی کرمان (Kerman university of medical sciences)

نشانی اینترنتی http://mjiri.iums.ac.ir/browse.php?a_code=A-10-1-1114&slc_lang=en&sid=en
فایل مقاله دریافت فایل مقاله
کد مقاله (doi)
زبان مقاله منتشر شده en
موضوعات مقاله منتشر شده Futures Studies
نوع مقاله منتشر شده Original Research
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