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Medical Journal of Islamic Republic of Iran، جلد ۳۰، شماره ۱، صفحات ۲۳۸-۲۴۵
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عنوان انگلیسی Estimation of the prevalence of chronic kidney disease: The results of a model based estimation in Kerman, Iran
چکیده انگلیسی مقاله Background: Chronic kidney disease is asymptomatic until its last stages and though it is increasing globally, we are faced with paucity of a population-based model to assess this disease, particularly in developing countries. Therefore, the aim of this study was to estimate the prevalence and trends of CKD according to a new estimation method.   Methods: Using multiplier method, we estimated the numbers of different stages of CKD based on the number of patients with end stage renal failure from 2006 to 2016. The required multipliers were extracted from a simulation of the disease in Kerman following a dynamic model. The 95% uncertainty interval was computed using Monte-Carlo technique with 10,000 iterations.   Results: The prevalence of CKDA (GFR<=90mL/min/1.73m2) and CKDB (GFR less than 60mL/min/1.73m2) patients were estimated to be 7.6% (95% uncertainty interval (UI), 5.7-9.1%) and 1.1% (95% UI, 0.8-1.3%), respectively in 2011. The method revealed that the prevalence may rise up to 25.7% (95% UI, 18.2-32.5%) and 3.7% (95% UI, 2.7-4.5%) for CKDA and CKDB, respectively in 2016, indicating approximately 3.3 times increase for both figures.   Conclusion: This study predicted an increase in the prevalence of CKD in the future. This may be due to the increasing life expectancy of the population, the increase in the prevalence of non- communicable diseases such as hypertension and diabetes, or patients' survival due to receiving better support. Therefore, the policymakers should be concerned and well informed about this increase. 
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نویسندگان مقاله رضا تبریزی | reza tabrizi
health policy research center, shiraz university of medical sciences, shiraz, iran.

سازمان اصلی تایید شده: دانشگاه علوم پزشکی شیراز (Shiraz university of medical sciences)

فرزانه ذوالعلی | farzaneh zolala
regional knowledge hub of hiv aids surveillance, institute for futures studies in health, kerman university of medical sciences, kerman, iran.

سازمان اصلی تایید شده: دانشگاه علوم پزشکی کرمان (Kerman university of medical sciences)

مریم نصیریان | maryam nasirian
regional knowledge hub of hiv aids surveillance, institute for futures studies in health, kerman university of medical scienc-es, kerman, iran.


محمدرضا بانشی | mohammad reza baneshi
research centre for modeling in health, institute for futures studies in health, kerman university of medical sciences, kerman, iran.

سازمان اصلی تایید شده: دانشگاه علوم پزشکی کرمان (Kerman university of medical sciences)

عباس اطمینان | abbas etminan
nephrology department, department of internal medicine, school of medicine, kerman university of medical sciences, kerman, iran.

سازمان اصلی تایید شده: دانشگاه علوم پزشکی کرمان (Kerman university of medical sciences)

اقبال سخاوتی | eghbal sekhavati
larestan school of medical sciences, laretsan, iran.


محمود خدادوست | mahmoud khodadost
department of epidemiology, faculty of public health, shahid beheshti university of medical sciences, tehran, iran.

سازمان اصلی تایید شده: دانشگاه علوم پزشکی شهید بهشتی (Shahid beheshti university of medical sciences)

علی اکبر حقدوست | ali akbar haghdoost
research center for modelling in health, institute for futures studies in health, kerman university of medical sciences, kerman, iran.

سازمان اصلی تایید شده: دانشگاه علوم پزشکی کرمان (Kerman university of medical sciences)

نشانی اینترنتی http://mjiri.iums.ac.ir/browse.php?a_code=A-10-1-970&slc_lang=en&sid=en
فایل مقاله اشکال در دسترسی به فایل - ./files/site1/rds_journals/18/article-18-568040.pdf
کد مقاله (doi)
زبان مقاله منتشر شده en
موضوعات مقاله منتشر شده Epidemiology
نوع مقاله منتشر شده Original Research
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